Jolla Market share forecast

Sort of a joke and sort of isn’t.

2.7M smartphones are sold every day nowadays according to @tomiahonen.

Jolla has sold 450 phones (or a little less) on its launch day on Nov 27th, some speculations and rumors tell that total preorder size is around 20K units (and at maximum could be 50K – “A typical factory batch size” mentioned by Jolla’s spokes person. We also know that Finnish DNA operator starts shipping around Dec 9 and Jolla seems to be busy shipping only preordered phones during December.

Well, speculating on 1K sales a day since Dec 9 and Jolla online store to start shipments on the same day, we get the graph of “shipped to customers” smartphones market share about.

Error margin? Well, if Jolla has not 20K phones ready, but 60K (on the higher side of 50K standard batch size), then Jolla is competing for 0.072% market share by the end of 2013, not for 0.024%. Guys made lots of great work and wearing my developer’s hat I can confirm that coding for Sailfish OS is a joy, but there is a long way ahead for the Jolla boat still.